A repeat of the Reserve Bank board’s split decision to raise interest rates in March could be on the cards as the central bank frets over the dual threats of high inflation and a stalling economy.
Financial markets and most economists are tipping a third straight rate hike on Tuesday.
ANZ Bank head of Australian economics Adam Boyton is part of the chorus predicting the Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate to 4.35 per cent – the same level as its post-COVID-19 pandemic peak.
But he thinks it won’t be a lay down misere, with several members likely to vote in favour of keeping rates on hold.
The combination of a tight labour market, above-target underlying inflation and concerns inflation expectations could become unanchored all point in favour of a hike.
At the same time, the US-Israeli war with Iran’s effects on the economy could convince some board members more time is needed to weigh the impact on economic growth.
In March, four of the board’s nine members voted unsuccessfully to keep rates on hold, arguing there was too much uncertainty around the domestic growth outlook and how the conflict in the Middle East would evolve.
Uncertainty around the path forward would be reflected in the bank’s post-meeting communications, Mr Boyton said, with no forward guidance expected.
“We expect, however, a tilt in the language in the post-meeting statement that will open the door to an extended pause,” he said.
Financial markets put the chance of a hike on Tuesday at about three-quarters and have fully priced in at least one more rate rise by November.
Westpac forecasts another two hikes after May, in June and August.
But economists at ANZ, NAB, Commonwealth Bank, Deutsche Bank and HSBC think the Reserve Bank will stand pat after Tuesday.
“Whether the RBA delivers further tightening beyond May will depend on how quickly the economy weakens,” HSBC’s local chief economist Paul Bloxham said.
“We see a recent sharp weakening in sentiment as a clear signal that a downturn is already under way.
“Our central case is that, beyond the May hike, the RBA remains on hold.”
Updated economic forecasts by Reserve Bank staff, released simultaneously to the monetary policy decision, will be closely scrutinised for hints about the path forward for rates.
Earlier on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release household spending figures for March.
Economists predict a rise of 1.5 per cent, driven by higher fuel spending.
Building approvals figures for March will be published on Monday.
Trend dwelling approvals have been gradually rising since early 2024 to just over 210,000 per year.
But the slow progress the industry has been making in recent years could be scuppered by surging building material prices as a result of the Iran war, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council has warned.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced to record closing highs on Friday, boosted by robust earnings and a dip in crude prices
The S&P 500 gained 20.46 points, or 0.28 per cent, to end at 7,229.47 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 217.67 points, or 0.87 per cent, to 25,109.98.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 155.67 points, or 0.31 per cent, to 49,496.47.
Australia’s share market broke its worst losing streak since 2018 as oil prices eased from four-year highs and strong US earnings boosted investor sentiment.
The S&P/ASX200 gained 64 points on Friday, up 0.74 per cent, to 8,729.8, while the broader All Ordinaries improved by 67 points, or 0.75 per cent, to 8,954.6.
Australian Associated Press is the beating heart of Australian news. AAP is Australia’s only independent national newswire and has been delivering accurate, reliable and fast news content to the media industry, government and corporate sector for 85 years. We keep Australia informed.
