China’s economic growth tops forecasts, war risks loom

April 16, 2026 12:15 | News

China’s economy grew 5.0 per cent in the first quarter ‌from a year earlier, official data shows, beating analysts’ expectations as policymakers brace ‌for the fallout from the Iran war.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the January-March quarter gross domestic product (GDP) would expand ‌4.8 per cent from ‌a year ⁠earlier, compared with a ​3-year low of 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter.

On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.3 per cent in the first quarter, matching forecasts and just ⁠ahead of ‌the ​1.2 per cent gain in the previous quarter.

Risks to ​the world’s ‌second-largest economy have surged since the Middle ​East war erupted on February 28.

The conflict has laid bare a ​critical ​vulnerability: as ​the world’s biggest energy importer ‌and a heavily export-driven economy, China is acutely exposed to an oil shock that is already slowing trade, driving up ​factory costs and clouding the outlook ​for the ⁠year.

AAP News

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