Inflation data this week will arrive too late for the Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting but it appears the RBA has already run out of patience.
Its rate-setters usually prefer to wait for quarterly inflation data before making a call, having done so out of cycle once since 2023.
But they are almost universally expected to hike the cash rate to 4.6 per cent on Tuesday rather than wait for the August numbers on Wednesday or the September quarter figures to land on October 28.
This would represent the highest benchmark borrowing rate since November 2011.
Money markets have almost fully priced in a September hike.
Expectations have steadily firmed since the release last month of unexpectedly hot inflation figures.
Oil prices have since climbed, while the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have all upped rates.
More evidence has also emerged that booming investment in AI is adding to excess demand.
But arguably the biggest change in the interim is how the market thinks the Reserve Bank will respond to above-target inflation – what economists call the bank’s “reaction function”.
Recent speaking engagements by governor Michele Bullock and other top officials show the thinking of the bank’s leadership has shifted.
While they might previously have been willing to await further data to assess how their three previous hikes were impacting the economy, they’re now more determined to bring inflation down, even at the expense of jobs.
“Whereas previously the full employment mandate was getting a greater focus, we expect the long period of core inflation above the target mid-point means the RBA is losing patience with getting inflation back to target,” HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said.
Morgan Stanley’s Australia economist Chris Read expects the board to vote unanimously in favour of a hike.
“This would mark a shift from its post-COVID approach, which allowed a slower return of inflation to target to limit labour market downside,” he said.
More rate hikes could follow, with November likely, depending on how strong inflation data comes in on Wednesday and in October.
Commonwealth Bank senior economist Trent Saunders expects annual headline inflation to lift from 3.5 to four per cent, reflecting a spike in fuel prices.
But he anticipates trimmed mean inflation – a measure of underlying price growth more closely watched by the Reserve Bank – to be unchanged at 3.6 per cent.
The real test ahead of the November meeting will be that September quarter print in late October.
Wednesday’s data will provide more insight into the quarterly outcome.
If CBA’s forecast were correct, it would suggest a one per cent rise in the trimmed mean for the September quarter, Mr Saunders said.
“We suspect a (quarterly) outcome of one per cent would prompt a follow-up rate hike in November, depending on what we learn about the RBA’s reaction function at Tuesday’s board meeting,” he said.
Household spending data for August will be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.
Consumption has held up surprisingly strongly in recent months, despite rising cost-of-living pressures and depressed household sentiment.
Building approvals and private sector credit data will be released on Wednesday, before trade figures and job vacancies on Thursday round out a busy week for the domestic economy.
Oil prices and a surge in Treasury yields have meanwhile left Wall Street investors edgy but this hasn’t stopped indices lifting on the back of AI-related tech stocks.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.51 per cent to end Friday at 7,743.41 points, the Nasdaq gained 0.48 per cent to 27,068.72 and the Dow Jones rose 0.93 per cent to 51,828.62 points.
Australian share futures were virtually static, picking up 3.0 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 11,783.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index fell 0.43 per cent on Friday to 8,665, its lowest level since June 11, while the broader All Ordinaries dropped 0.58 per cent to 8,845.6.
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