Avocados, noodle wheat, cotton candy grapes and beef are among Australian agriculture’s high performers, while farmers hope for calmer weather and political conditions in the new year.
There are broadly positive prospects for the national sector in the first half of 2026, though climate and international trade will remain front of mind for producers.
US President Donald Trump’s approach to tariffs created volatile conditions for farmers in 2025, with uncertainty likely to continue over the next six months, Bendigo Bank’s outlook said.
There were also mixed forecasts on the weather front, with a hot start to the new year and below average rainfall for much of Australia aside from parts of Queensland, according the weather bureau.
The combined political and climate scenarios could “significantly benefit or hamper the industry as we move through the first half of 2026”, the bank’s report said.
Australian beef has led a bumper year in agriculture, with exports 15 per cent higher than in 2024 amid strong demand from major markets like the US, China and Japan.
The outlook, released on Tuesday morning, said predicted higher-than-average rainfall in northern Australian cattle zones and dry conditions in the south may tighten the market slightly.
“Ultimately, the export situation for Australia remains favourable and is likely to continue seeing these strong volumes in the first half of 2026,” the report said.
In cropping, total winter production in 2025/26 is forecast to reach more than 62 million tonnes, a 12 per cent increase on mid-year estimates.
The result would be the third largest on record, with barley and canola leading exports in the first quarter of the financial year.
Demand for grain from southeast Asia was expected to rise sharply, with early season interest in noodle wheat and high-protein varieties.
Western Australian avocado growers have had a bumper season, with predictions the state will almost double its 2024/25 harvest at 60,000 tonnes.
Domestic consumption of avocados was expected to be above 5kg per person for the first time in 2026, with growers also targeting markets in Japan and Thailand.
Table grape producers have benefited from better trade access to Japan, where sweet and juicy cotton candy grapes proved a winner.
The varroa mite, an introduced parasite that feeds on honey bees, has created pollination issues, affecting apple and almond crops and driving up costs for producers.
“Despite these challenges, the Australian fruit and nut sectors will continue to derive support from favourable trade terms and strong yield outlooks.”
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